Scenario Modelling - Jobs & Desired Outcomes¶
Generated from .jobs.json — do not edit directly.
Confirmed Outcomes¶
Corroborated by 2+ sources
Job: Apply percentage-based assumptions to forecasts while preserving underlying patterns¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the risk of overestimating collections or underestimating outflows | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase the ability to model scenarios quickly (e.g., -5% on collections) | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce manual effort in creating multiple forecast scenarios | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Minimize the loss of weekly/daily patterns when adjusting forecast totals | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: Scenarios feature not yet built. Users still use Excel for this.
Sources: - Personio (2025-10-21) - "We'd like to be able to apply -5% on collections as a conservative assumption" - Tom - Personio (2025-12-04) - "if there was the opportunity to have like a percentage flex broadly across all of our Palm generated forecast by a percentage... I would like to keep that rationale in there and not just layer on top like a blanket 2 million a week additional" - Tom - ON (2026-02-18) - "Very intuitive and, I think, very fitting for Treasury. Like scenario planning." - Rated 8-9/10 excitement. Part of ON's 2026 goals. Saw use cases for working capital (AR/AP/inventory), FX currency impact, new market entry. - Amanda, Rodrigo - Personio (2026-02-18) - "I can probably go away and say we need to apply this to our balances in six months time with some planned activities there. With this, we would be able to do it, I think." - Validated prototype UI. Emphasized need for layered assumptions (multiple per forecast), one-off absolute values (acquisitions, capital markets), and save/name/share with management before applying. - Tom - ON (2026-03-04) - "I can see that we're going to need to provide anchors to the management on figures. And I want to feel safe that we've stress tested this enough to really feel this is a secure spot." - Tested prototype live with inventory +40% assumption. Percentage-only too basic for their real workflows — need timing shifts and entity-level modeling. Strategic importance: CFO will ask about minimum cash and M&A capacity. - Lucia, Amanda, Yulia
Job: Validate indirect P&L budget assumptions using direct cash forecast as independent sense check¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the time required to sense-check controlling's budget against direct cash data | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase confidence that FP&A's 5-year plan is realistic by cross-referencing with cash flow patterns | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce reliance on mental calculations when assessing whether budget assumptions hold | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase ability to feed budget-level assumptions (e.g., +40% inventory) into the direct forecast and see the cash impact | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No FP&A data ingestion. No way to translate indirect P&L items to direct cash impact systematically.
Sources: - Instacart (2025-07-01) - "That's the art of it... here's our P&L budget for the year. And you have to say, well, what would that look like on a cash basis?" - Bonus timing, stock comp, collection lags — translating accrual to cash - David Watt - ON (2026-03-04) - "Our controlling team plans P&L and budget for the next five years. And then, as a consequence, they have some sort of cash planning. It's very difficult for me to tell if it's realistic or not because it's just the consequence of a lot of other planning. So this is where I use Palm a lot just to do a sense check that is more data driven than my own mental calculations." - Not about explaining variance — about using direct cash data as an independent validation of whether controlling's indirect plan is realistic. If controlling says +40% inventory, can she input that into Palm and see if the cash impact matches what controlling projects? - Lucia
Job: Compose multiple assumptions into named event scenarios (e.g., store opening, acquisition)¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the effort to model multi-faceted business events as coherent scenarios | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase reusability of individual assumptions across different scenario combinations | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce the complexity of understanding combined impacts from multiple simultaneous changes | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No composable assumption model built yet. Users describe this as the LEGO-brick approach.
Sources: - ON (2026-02-18) - "I think I can see us using it for different reasons. Like, for example, for inventory. Like more this kind of networking capital." - Lego-piece mental model resonated strongly. Saw immediate use for Swedish store opening scenario (combining increased SEK payroll, capex, etc). - Amanda, Rodrigo - ON (2026-03-04) - "I think it creates trust as well, because when you change one brick of the Lego... it's easier for us to judge if the change makes sense." - Reinforced composable assumptions concept. Tested live with inventory +40% assumption. Store opening, IC term changes as concrete use cases. - Lucia - Personio (2026-02-18) - "Maybe at some point you want to layer in several different assumptions, you know, multiple. And that I'm sure from a data perspective, that's an absolute nightmare. But that would probably be what would be helpful to see." - Layered/stacked assumptions — multiple assumptions assembled into a single scenario. Percentages + one-offs + sequences of events. - Tom
Job: Define worst/best case scenarios from historical extremes¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the effort to calculate worst-case cash position from historical min/max by category group | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase the ability to layer multiple severity levels by toggling category groups on/off | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce dependency on manual spreadsheet analysis for stress testing | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No automated worst/best case generation from historical data.
Sources: - Personio (2026-02-18) - "Usually worst case scenario from a Treasury side is what you focus on. And if all of those things happen together — like you have to think of the worst, worst, worst case." - Combining maximum outflows with minimum inflows from historical data over past 6 months to establish worst-case cash positions. - Tom - ON (2026-02-18) - "Worst case, best case, in your baseline forecast, you've got your three scenarios that you'd like to run. And you're tracking what scenario you are moving against." - Discussed confidence bands as scenario approach — exposure to best/worst case concept. Interest in seeing probability-based ranges on forecasts. - Jennifer
Job: Model the cash impact of timing shifts in payments and collections¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the manual effort to model 'what if payments are delayed by N days' scenarios | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase the ability to quantify the cash impact of intercompany payment term changes | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce the time to model the impact of collection slowdowns on entity-level cash | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No timing shift capability. Only percentage adjustments exist in prototype.
Sources: - ON (2026-03-04) - "I think timing shift is actually quite, quite good and quite useful in lots of different cases." - Distinct from percentage-based adjustments (sm-001). About delaying/accelerating inflows or outflows by N days. Use cases: IC payment delays (regions paying late), AR collection slowdowns (SEK shortage example), store opening delays. Entity-level, not group. - Amanda - Instacart (2025-07-01) - "They might pay the bonuses in stock... or even if it is a cash bonus... typically paid in February or March for the prior year." - Payment term lags and timing as fundamental treasury challenge. Revenue +10% translates to collections with 60-day lag. Bonus accrual vs cash payout timing disconnect. - David Watt
Job: Save and compare forecast versions to track how assumptions changed over time¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize the difficulty of remembering past forecast assumptions ("What was my opinion in March?") | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase ability to attribute variance to assumption changes vs actuals variance | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce unexplained variance by tracking all assumption changes systematically | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No forecast version tracking. Users can't compare past forecasts or see what assumptions changed.
Sources: - Instacart (2025-07-01) - "Being able to save a version of the forecast and call this the July 1st forecast... you can compare July forecast to June forecast... the system could tell you: you changed these three assumptions" - David Watt - ON (2026-01-22) - "Forecast vs Forecast comparison — building WMAPE methodology to compare different forecast versions for the same week" - Building forecast validation methodology. Saving snapshots and comparing forecast versions over time to see improvement. - Federico Morando - Sonder (2024-10-03) - "Comparing original to actuals over time — quarterly forecast versions saved and compared" - Weekly forecasts, quarterly version saves for comparison - David Watt
Job: Adjust ML-based forecasts for market disruptors (COVID, tariffs, etc.)¶
| Desired Outcome | Status | Solved By |
|---|---|---|
| Minimize manual input by using reusable percentage-based adjustments | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Increase transparency of adjustment reasons for future analysis | ⬚ Not solved | — |
| Reduce duplicate work when disruptors are already reflected in historical ML data | ⬚ Not solved | — |
Gaps: No way to apply and track market disruptor adjustments on top of ML forecasts.
Sources: - Levi's (2025-12-11) - "Maybe I just need percentages of how I want to adjust the number... and an explanation for the next poor soul who goes into the system and tries to understand what went on there. Oh, we did an adjustment. Downward adjustment of 20%. What was that about? And you look at... Maybe it's the same factor. Oh, so you just check. You just check. It's already in there." - Dette - ON (2026-03-04) - "Tariffs and ad-hoc external shocks are hard to model — they don't follow historical patterns" - Tariffs, geopolitical events as scenarios that disrupt ML model assumptions. Need explicit adjustment layer. - Lucia
Emerging Signals¶
Single source — needs corroboration
Potential Job: Create hybrid/blended forecasts that combine different assumption levels¶
Potential Outcomes: - Increase flexibility in forecast configuration (conservative vs aggressive options) - Minimize the effort to switch between forecast scenarios - Reduce the need to maintain entirely separate forecast files
Source: Personio (2025-10-21) - Discussion of "hybrid forecast blending" with conservative/aggressive options
Potential Job: Plan investment decisions using forward cash visibility¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the uncertainty when deciding investment duration (1 month vs 3 months) - Increase confidence to lock cash in for longer periods when forecasts show adequate liquidity - Reduce overly conservative investment decisions due to lack of forward visibility - Minimize the frequency of guesswork in investment timing
Source: Personio (2026-01-28) - "This essentially helps maybe in the future... we shouldn't be investing for one month. We can say, no, we should invest two or three months because we're comfortable with how much cash we're going to have." - Tom
Potential Job: Create scenario plans for investment activity at the beginning of each month¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the ad-hoc nature of investment decisions throughout the month - Increase ability to track planned vs actual investment activity - Reduce the cognitive load of making investment decisions on a rolling basis
Source: Personio (2026-01-28) - "if we were able to say that we have this beginning of the month plan, scenario based, and this is the investment activity that we're expecting to take and then be able to convert back to that, that would be great" - Tom
Potential Job: Make quick operational decisions when plans change¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the time to model a "what if this payment doesn't happen" scenario - Reduce the need to use Excel for ad-hoc calculations - Increase confidence that scenario impact is accurately calculated
Source: ON (2024-11-19) - "If the tool is not flexible or intuitive to make scenarios or adjustments, you end up doing it in Excel. And I think that's the worst that can happen to a TMS." - Lucia
Potential Job: Track fixed-point scenarios against rolling actuals over time¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the loss of scenario baselines when forecasts re-baseline to actuals - Increase ability to see whether actuals are tracking best case, baseline, or worst case - Reduce confusion when comparing original scenario assumptions to updated forecasts
Source: ON (2026-02-18) - Jennifer raised key design tension: rolling forecast re-baselines to actuals, wiping out scenario comparison. Need to 'fix' a scenario and overlay actuals on top. ON team agreed. - Jennifer (raised), Amanda/Rodrigo (validated)
Potential Job: Determine and defend minimum cash thresholds per entity using forecast-derived calculations¶
Potential Outcomes: - Minimize the time required to calculate data-driven cash buffer recommendations per entity - Reduce the frequency of disputes with regional teams about required cash levels - Increase confidence in minimum cash guidance provided to CFO for M&A capacity decisions - Minimize the gap between perceived buffer needs (regional claims) and actual data-driven requirements
Source: ON (2026-03-04) - "This idea of minimum cash, which we define as a company. We never want to have less than two weeks worth of payables... especially when it's not hard coded, but rather calculated, it really helps in the conversations with the region to say, hey, you keep telling me that you need two hundred, but what we see is that you would be okay with 50." - Dynamic line derived from forecasted outflows (e.g., 2 weeks of upcoming payables), overlaid on forecast chart. Moves with forecast. Use cases: advise CFO on safe M&A capacity, negotiate entity buffers with regions, stress test under scenarios, show impact of IC payment delays. Also want to model 'what needs to happen to reach X cash target' (goal-seeking). - Lucia
Notes¶
- sm-e-004 (scenario-based investment planning) builds on investments-debt/id-002 (foundational investment visibility and tracking). id-002 provides the data infrastructure (seeing maturities, tracking positions); sm-e-004 is the strategic use case (using forecast scenarios to decide investment duration and timing).
- sm-e-002 promoted to confirmed sm-002 (2026-03-04). Reframed from 'Reconcile short-term cash forecast with annual P&L budget' to 'Validate indirect P&L budget assumptions using direct cash forecast as independent sense check' — ON's Lucia uses Palm as data-driven sense check of controlling's 5-year plan, not to explain variances but to independently validate whether budget assumptions are realistic.
- sm-e-008 promoted to confirmed sm-003 (2026-03-10). Personio (Tom, 2026-02-18) validated layered/stacked assumptions alongside ON's LEGO-piece model. Two independent companies corroborate composable scenarios.
- sm-e-010 promoted to confirmed sm-004 (2026-03-10). ON (2026-02-18) discussed confidence bands and best/worst case concepts alongside Personio's explicit worst-case methodology from historical extremes.
- sm-e-012 promoted to confirmed sm-005 (2026-03-10). Instacart (2025-07-01) described payment term lags and timing as fundamental treasury challenge, corroborating ON's explicit timing shift request.
- sm-e-001 promoted to confirmed sm-006 (2026-03-10). ON (Federico, 2026-01-22) and Sonder (David Watt, 2024-10-03) independently describe forecast version comparison alongside Instacart.
- sm-e-007 promoted to confirmed sm-007 (2026-03-10). ON (2026-03-04) discusses tariffs as market disruptors alongside Levi's (Dette) evidence.