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ON - Forecast Performance Deep Dive - 2025-10-07

Metadata

  • Date: 2025-10-07
  • Company: ON
  • External Participants: Rodrigo Cabrera (Treasury)
  • Palm Participants: Emma Sjöström, Christian Sobkowski, Art Koci
  • Type: Customer Call
  • Domain Areas: Cash Forecasting, Forecast Performance, Variance Analysis
  • Recording: https://tldv.io/app/meetings/686fdc95d9f5c50013ecba53/

Summary

Context

Customer call with Rodrigo from ON's treasury team. Christian walked through Palm's internal forecast performance dashboard, comparing ML forecasts (orange) vs actuals (blue) for specific accounts and categories. Art Koci (new Palm team member) was introduced.

Key Discussion Points

  • Reviewed forecast accuracy for specific US and UK accounts (payables, salaries, DKK collections)
  • Discussed biweekly vs weekly payroll patterns - ML currently predicting weekly when it should be biweekly
  • Explored account grouping needs - viewing forecasts at entity/currency level rather than individual accounts
  • Reviewed Hex data integration issues - many records missing account codes
  • Discussed cash pool/ZBA structure and how participant account forecasts should roll up to master account
  • Touched on handling new accounts (Australia bank switch) - can history transfer?

Pain Points

  • ML forecast picking up wrong pattern for US payroll (weekly vs biweekly)
  • Can't easily drill down into specific transactions from dashboard
  • Individual account view doesn't give full picture - need entity/currency grouping
  • Hex data has null account codes, limiting forecast accuracy
  • New accounts have no history for ML to learn from

Feature Requests & Needs

  • Improve payroll frequency detection (biweekly pattern recognition)
  • Account grouping / entity-level forecast views
  • Ability to input known recurring payments (taxes, bonuses, social security) that ML can't predict
  • Cash pool roll-up: see how participant account forecasts affect master account balance
  • Balance alerts when forecasted to go negative
  • Transfer forecast history when switching banks/accounts

Jobs & Desired Outcomes

Job: Monitor forecast accuracy and trust the system's predictions

Desired Outcomes: - Minimize the time required to identify forecast deviations that need investigation - Reduce the frequency of unexpected large payments not reflected in forecast - Increase confidence that the forecast reflects known business events

Job: View cash position holistically across related accounts

Desired Outcomes: - Minimize the effort to understand net cash position by entity/currency - Reduce the risk of missing liquidity issues visible only at aggregate level

Domain Insights

  • ON uses 13-week (3 month) forecast horizon for short-term view
  • Investment decisions made months ahead, not weeks
  • US payroll is biweekly via ADP
  • Cash pool structure: master/header accounts with participant accounts that sweep daily
  • Separate receivables vs payables accounts (split done in 2024 for HighRadius implementation)
  • HR/Talent team maintains separate tracker for non-salary payroll items (social security, benefits, severance)
  • Tax team maintains separate tax payment tracker
  • Australia undergoing bank switch - new accounts coming

Action Items

  • [ ] Follow up on Hex data - many null account codes limiting forecast accuracy
  • [ ] Rodrigo to update Hex file with account codes manually
  • [ ] Schedule similar session with Amanda for longer-term forecast discussion
  • [ ] Investigate intercompany categorization on UK account (6M spikes)

Notable Quotes

"I don't want to see it on a daily basis. How it's changing minor changes. But if there's any big outgoing forecasts, or incoming forecast to easily identify it and check it and make sure that it's coming or it's an outgoing payment and that we have enough to cover it." - Rodrigo

"If we see something that is required like that every couple of months, we can input it in the system in advance. Like, Hey, we're expecting 10 million every three months to taxes or salaries or whatever so the model can consider it for the future forecast." - Rodrigo

"I can see here, okay, I get worried that I have a 50 million payment in two weeks. But if I have a 60 million incoming payment in next week, then there's not much that I can do... Exactly." - Rodrigo (on why entity-level view matters)

Full Transcript

Date: 10/07/2025, 17:30

00:00 Emma Sjöström: Like I have a lot of very grandma Grandma attributes. Let's not. I'm on, I'm being recorded now. So let's for a beer. oh, How you doing?

00:15 Art Koci: All good. Yeah, just strange weather which is making me tired.

00:25 Emma Sjöström: Oh, what's the weather? Like what? I just hope or

00:29 Art Koci: And the morning 10 degrees during the day, 30. And then back to 10,

00:36 Emma Sjöström: Gotcha. But At least. You get some sleep, maybe then

00:41 Art Koci: Yeah, yeah, that's a good stuff.

00:44 Emma Sjöström: outside.

00:58 Rodrigo Cabrera: okay, I'm going

00:59 Emma Sjöström: We go.

01:00 Art Koci: Hello.

01:00 Christian Sobkowski: Hey sir, thanks for making the time, how are you doing?

01:01 Emma Sjöström: All good.

01:04 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, all good though. Good you

01:07 Emma Sjöström: Yes.

01:08 Christian Sobkowski: I'm saying. Can't complain.

01:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: Thanks.

01:14 Christian Sobkowski: Very cool. Hey I I brought a bit of a crowd Rodrigo. Hope. That's cool.

01:20 Rodrigo Cabrera: I say Yeah no problem.

01:22 Christian Sobkowski: You and Art, haven't met Ryan. I'll leave you guys to introduce.

01:32 Art Koci: And yeah, that's me basically. I joined the Well two months ago now, three months, I'm not sure but it does feel both very long and very short time ago, so not sure what that means. But yeah, nice to meet you Rodrigo.

02:03 Rodrigo Cabrera: Imagine can imagine a hope, you hope Christian and Emma treating you. Well then

02:09 Emma Sjöström: Yeah.

02:10 Art Koci: Very well.

02:11 Emma Sjöström: Good.

02:11 Rodrigo Cabrera: That's nice. Oh, nice to meet you. Nice to meet, you know, I'm Rodrigo Church part of the treachery team here on. Been working with pump for almost. What is it almost a year now? Christians, maybe from the first initial.

02:27 Christian Sobkowski: As September, I think. Yeah. Yeah.

02:29 Rodrigo Cabrera: Nice. Nice, nobody. Yeah I'm mostly looking to the The forecasting part of things. So, yeah, let's see what? But you have built.

02:43 Christian Sobkowski: What what I'm what I want to do now is I, I want to show you one of our internal dashboards that we are using sort of to monitor, or to you really that, that art and Emma and I are using a lot to monitor performance of forecasts. And and it's one part of the things we do behind the scenes and I wanted to use it.

20:47 Christian Sobkowski: And basically I think it shows or know it shows more than the app does. And I want to get sort of your Your bit unfiltered. Reactions to that. And Yeah, just have a couple questions lined up with that sounds. Okay, so I think

03:35 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

03:37 Christian Sobkowski: Other specific accounts and categories, you care. The most about. Probably right.

03:53 Rodrigo Cabrera: coming from? Or where they?

04:53 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

04:54 Rodrigo Cabrera: payables are going to

04:55 Christian Sobkowski: So we care about like, balances for the next, what week, two weeks months?

04:58 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Yeah, we usually do this 13 weeks or more of a short-term view. A so I guess. Three months more or less.

05:13 Christian Sobkowski: Nice. Cool.

05:15 Emma Sjöström: Alaska Super, Super sorry. Just like if you're making an investment, how far ahead are you planning to move that money ish? I said I didn't weeks or is it? I

05:24 Rodrigo Cabrera: months.

05:49 Emma Sjöström: Culture.

05:53 Christian Sobkowski: Okay, and let me know, pull up the dashboard. so, or actually, so I think what we're gonna do, is, because we we often look at these things on a Transaction or cash flow level first, right? So balances are sort of, we're trying to predict what is the activity that's going to happen in the account and then that yields the balance for the account, right? so, This is, I pulled us back in time to March 31.

00:00 :

06:44 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

06:47 Christian Sobkowski: Actually, there's It's getting like pretty close between the forecast and actuals. I want to take you into I would love to go through a couple accounts category, pairs with you and see your reactions to it. And what would be interesting things to look at. Where you have a fair bit of activity?

08:22 Rodrigo Cabrera: a specific account or or

08:24 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Yeah.

08:28 Rodrigo Cabrera: We can you go to a USD account in Nonaged, for example, it's mostly for payments. Yeah.

08:36 Christian Sobkowski: So that would be payables meaning.

08:38 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

08:39 Christian Sobkowski: This one, two nine, six seven.

08:50 Rodrigo Cabrera: No, you will be.

08:54 Christian Sobkowski: The answer number by any chance.

08:55 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yes, you Yeah. I thought I was going to thank.

09:03 Christian Sobkowski: Is it JP Morgan or UBS?

09:06 Rodrigo Cabrera: you know, UVs

09:07 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

09:11 Rodrigo Cabrera: Inside the one ending in. 64, You

09:22 Christian Sobkowski: This one.

09:25 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

09:31 Christian Sobkowski: Cool. And let's look at this one, maybe huh? And this is where you would have data and hex as well.

09:49 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

09:53 Christian Sobkowski: So not getting a lot of hex data for this one.

09:59 Rodrigo Cabrera: He? and the imported the hex data when

10:05 Christian Sobkowski: This is finally sent on April 1st.

10:13 Rodrigo Cabrera: but then, because we are looking at I know we're looking for much and after,

10:20 Christian Sobkowski: Let's focused. Yeah. Okay, let's

10:24 Rodrigo Cabrera: But it's giving it's giving from March until May or month and a half of data. No. Of invoices.

10:33 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

10:35 Rodrigo Cabrera: I have the dates how close to zero.

10:38 Christian Sobkowski: Close to zero. Okay, for let's we, we can look into the hacks data later. Let's let's quickly. Maybe.

10:47 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Or you know what? Let's look at the Yeah, another account in on UK, I think that might be better a

10:58 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

10:59 Rodrigo Cabrera: He said the one ending in 1996 Zero One.

11:08 Christian Sobkowski: This one.

11:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. And this guy also not getting head data.

11:13 Christian Sobkowski: No, we can we can also double check this one in the file.

11:18 Rodrigo Cabrera: Okay. Yeah.

11:19 Christian Sobkowski: You would expect more more from Hex, right?

11:22 Art Koci: And we had a lot of phenol accounts and that data. So maybe it could be that

11:22 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

11:27 Art Koci: actually I think half of it was without a account code.

11:32 Christian Sobkowski: Ah, do you have the map to your accounts? In Hex.

11:35 Art Koci: No, it was just it was just not populated at all. It was a no.

11:40 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Yeah, a question to Rodrigo. Do you have them populated to accounts and hex?

11:48 Rodrigo Cabrera: We had that issue at some point. Hey. But I can review the data and at the account manually, that's better.

12:00 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. I think it'd be it could be fun, and Let's maybe, let's, I know there's a few accounts with hacks data here. I'll pull them up later, but So, maybe quickly. So this is orange versus blue is Orange is the forecast, you've seen in the app. Which is machine learning versus blue, is what actually happened? An immediate reactions.

00:00 :

12:38 Rodrigo Cabrera: transfer that we did manually A

12:52 Christian Sobkowski: This one, the big big trend, the big here.

12:55 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. And the same at you in the same at the end of June.

13:00 Christian Sobkowski: On the actuals. Yeah.

13:04 Rodrigo Cabrera: A might be a, why it's not something that we do on our current basis. So maybe hard to to So they machine learning ai, whatever to track a. We're trying to get better at that. So we have a proper invoices and a proper payment schedule for for intercompany payment.

13:26 Rodrigo Cabrera: But just by looking at those, I think that's That's the big drop in there.

13:33 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

13:35 Rodrigo Cabrera: So it was also an inflow of cash.

13:50 Christian Sobkowski: It. Yeah, it should. It should be filtered out from what because we are. So

13:50 Rodrigo Cabrera: A, It was not expected.

13:56 Christian Sobkowski: these actuals are Our categorized based on our categorization, right? so, I think We cleaned it up so much now that there shouldn't be too much into company

14:06 Rodrigo Cabrera: Mmm. Can we drill down into one of those?

14:10 Christian Sobkowski: activity. If any in here? I think we might be unable to in right now, I can definitely do that afterwards. So,

14:27 Rodrigo Cabrera: Not just check. Yeah.

14:27 Christian Sobkowski: We can look into it. Yeah, I think I think right now it would it would probably take me five minutes, 10 minutes to drill down Okay. Can I show you something else?

14:45 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

14:46 Christian Sobkowski: real quick and so, And you are, you're quite interested in. So, maybe quickly on on payables and You're you're not, are you using like a payables forecast? So would you want to? You need to payables forecast.

15:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: A. Will be nice here because right now we have the the open AP, right? But if we

15:13 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. Yeah.

15:18 Rodrigo Cabrera: can get at something a little bit more accurate based on

15:23 Christian Sobkowski: Good.

15:23 Rodrigo Cabrera: Like historical data and everything will be good.

15:27 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

15:28 Rodrigo Cabrera: No. I just I just open a statement there. And yeah, and the third of June, we had a

15:32 Christian Sobkowski: Sorry.

15:37 Rodrigo Cabrera: big six million outgoing, inter company payment. In the same at the end of June.

15:44 Christian Sobkowski: Got it.

15:46 Rodrigo Cabrera: So that those were the two spikes.

15:49 Christian Sobkowski: Got it. Did you did you open that in the palm platform? No, you opened it in a different statement.

15:56 Rodrigo Cabrera: I had it open, like, in the tab next video just quickly.

15:58 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. Okay, all right. Okay, cool, cool. And Good. Yeah. Okay. Could could be that? Some of that is categorization. Okay. I want to quickly get your your take on some of the other bits and Maybe. Is this your US salary account?

16:27 Rodrigo Cabrera: This. Probably, yeah, right now. It's a mix there in the US. It's not split 100%. So we will have ar A In AP payments.

16:40 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

16:40 Rodrigo Cabrera: But the rest, it's pretty accurate. Pretty close.

16:54 Christian Sobkowski: What, what do you mean with the spikes?

16:56 Rodrigo Cabrera: That may first April 2nd, the it's just huge transfers out of the account.

17:04 Christian Sobkowski: Are you think those are not salary payments?

17:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: I don't think so. It's How much is it 20 million now?

17:17 Christian Sobkowski: One, two million.

17:20 Rodrigo Cabrera: Actually.

17:21 Christian Sobkowski: Two million.

17:28 Rodrigo Cabrera: I'm probably 10. Yeah. I can check.

17:33 Christian Sobkowski: I I can I can probably check actually for you as well. I realized

17:36 Rodrigo Cabrera: Middle of the month, right? So that one also in April 15, 16

17:50 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

17:51 Rodrigo Cabrera: Might be a salary payment.

17:53 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, you have I think these are salary payments. Not

17:56 Rodrigo Cabrera: Probably.

17:59 Christian Sobkowski: So and it do you like it? If I asked you, for example, would you know how your salaries are paid in the US?

18:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: Not in the US.

18:11 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

18:11 Rodrigo Cabrera: It. Yeah.

18:17 Christian Sobkowski: Would would this live in your? In that payroll spreadsheet that he talked about.

18:24 Rodrigo Cabrera: A not for salaries. That's more of other payroll. Payments. Like Social Security and stuff like that A but but we should already have like a

18:38 Christian Sobkowski: Ah, yeah.

18:43 Rodrigo Cabrera: month.

18:50 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

18:51 Rodrigo Cabrera: Hey, so that's something I could check. The AMC. Which account are you looking at? 67.

19:11 Christian Sobkowski: Jake 967, jpm.

19:20 Rodrigo Cabrera: yeah, I think that one's That one I think is the cash concentration account.

19:31 Christian Sobkowski: Uh-huh.

19:31 Rodrigo Cabrera: A So it's maybe some pullings. But yeah, maybe paying from A. Like transferring to the, to the payables account, or something like that.

19:50 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, hang on I'll show you something else then, real quick. So just I just went in to the platform. This is the, this is the account.

20:02 Rodrigo Cabrera: Let me see.

20:08 Christian Sobkowski: Operating USD and this is CP, the two million peak is on. First of May,

20:16 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

20:26 Christian Sobkowski: There's no it's it's like ADP.

20:32 Rodrigo Cabrera: ADP. Oh yeah, then it's that sorry. Yeah, yeah.

20:33 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Salary right. And here, the million is also ADP.

20:43 Rodrigo Cabrera: company.

20:49 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, right.

20:51 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, you're right.

20:52 Christian Sobkowski: And then you have more ADP, okay?

20:54 Rodrigo Cabrera: And we have categorized that my salary scene.

20:54 Christian Sobkowski: so, Yeah. Yeah. I filtered by salaries. Okay. So, so, actually what I wanted to call out is right now our forecast here is not ideal actually because it's We're currently picking up on sort of a weekly schedule instead of a biweekly. And overall. it vehicles out, sort of, if you aggregate monthly, it equals out, but on a week per week basis, we are Yeah, this is orange is the palm forecast and Blue is very regular payroll pattern as he said.

00:00 :

21:42 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

21:47 Christian Sobkowski: If we improve this, Is that helpful?

21:53 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, on percent.

21:59 Christian Sobkowski: And is this, so, maybe sorry the other question and would you would you want us to? because as you said, right, it's payroll, you know, note, or There is a pattern, would you want an algorithm to predict this or what you want this to come from somewhere else?

22:24 Rodrigo Cabrera: to understand like those salary payments are coming okay every month once a month or every couple of every two weeks, A.

23:01 Emma Sjöström: I think I've yeah, I've heard this feedback from Amanda, too. We I showed I showed her briefly and we've discussed too. Like, if you could turn off machine learning for an account and a category, sorry despair with me. what I'm hearing is that, okay, so four Salaries For this account you would rather have a fallback behavior which is just like at a every other week.

23:27 Emma Sjöström: It's this Amount outflow.

23:31 Rodrigo Cabrera: capabilities, if it's doing it for us, right? So if it can do it in saves us, That manual input and checking every couple of weeks how much it has changed even better.

25:03 Christian Sobkowski: Makes sense.

25:04 Emma Sjöström: Yeah, makes sense.

25:05 Christian Sobkowski: So, sorry, Emma.

25:07 Emma Sjöström: No.

25:09 Christian Sobkowski: How am Rico? How often is this kind of behavior happening. Where something changes in the business. Like is that for example, that that example payroll in the US is going up 70%? Is that like realistic of those realistic that

25:27 Rodrigo Cabrera: Now. I, I probably not, maybe goes up 5% at 10% a year, something like that. It's

25:35 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

25:39 Rodrigo Cabrera: not. But it goes up one percent a month, right? If somebody said it, increasing

25:42 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

25:45 Rodrigo Cabrera: a same. Same as in Twitter. And here retired, like the salary. We have, we are

25:45 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

25:54 Rodrigo Cabrera: Half of the companies here in Surrey, right? So it's more more of an impact here.

25:59 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

26:03 Rodrigo Cabrera: But yeah, it changes then a monthly basis. I have I don't know, have a percentage. And then of course we have the every April, the bonus payments, for example. So but that's something also that A We can add it manually or Maybe it already has predicted the trends that this is happening every April on the 25th.

00:00 :

26:32 Christian Sobkowski: Would that be on the UA UBS account?

26:37 Rodrigo Cabrera: It will be an ues. Yeah.

26:41 Christian Sobkowski: This one 9028.

26:46 Rodrigo Cabrera: Play. Maybe yeah. 902. I think we're paying from that one. No, no, we're painting from. It's in THF. I think it will be out to H. Or 03 g. Not sure. Which one,

27:13 Christian Sobkowski: 028. This one.

27:15 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, probably.

27:16 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, must be this one, right? This is probably the peak. The bonuses.

27:28 Rodrigo Cabrera: Nothing way.

27:28 Christian Sobkowski: Or maybe not even.

27:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: 18 Way they were in. and when did I get paid and USA pro, or make a One of those. Nothing was a problem, honestly.

27:43 Christian Sobkowski: Your bonus.

27:50 Rodrigo Cabrera: Will be nice. I wouldn't be talking to you.

27:57 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. Okay. Okay. And this might. Okay. So okay. I'll quickly go back actually to let me ask you a slightly different question because Take this one, for example here, we got it wrong, right? So, we are predicting like a weekly thing. That's really wrong. It should be biweekly in the US, right? And we also getting

28:39 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

28:42 Christian Sobkowski: so after this, I know Art is gonna go away, and he's gonna like improve this And and it's right. Then in a couple weeks, it's gonna look a lot better. But, and how do you?

29:03 Rodrigo Cabrera: Okay.

29:04 Christian Sobkowski: How do you think about? How do you like to see this kind of stuff? Right. Basically like because ultimately, I think it's Released in my experiences forecast. It's like you need to to trust the forecast. You kind of need to to believe in it and believe it's Getting the right things.

29:30 Christian Sobkowski: What will be some of the steps you would be taking?

29:37 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, I think. How are you would want to see this? I don't want to see it on a daily basis. How it's changing Minor changes. But if there's any big outgoing forecasts, or being coming, forecast to easily a identify it and, and check it and, and make sure that it's it's coming or it's an outgoing payment and that we have enough, a To cover it.

30:08 Rodrigo Cabrera: So we I don't know if the forecast is telling me that in in two weeks I have a 15 million payment going out. But none of our open ars. Open a piece. The state and we should investigate. Hey, we usually have this every year are we having it again and reach out to the correct teams to make sure that We are able to, to process it.

30:40 Rodrigo Cabrera: but then on a daily on the day today, if the changes are operationally I don't know if I will want to. A. To go into the detail. Why we have a hundred dollars difference then it doesn't matter. But when we have a huge, a spy coming soon that it's being forecasted, I

30:58 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

31:02 Rodrigo Cabrera: think that's where it gets more interesting. so, those outlier A. Payments.

31:12 Christian Sobkowski: Got it. You, you care about the outlier payments in the next two weeks. Across accounts that bring your balance down significantly, right?

31:22 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Or up.

31:28 Christian Sobkowski: Or up. Yeah, we're up nice. Hopefully up except for when it's your bonus.

31:33 Rodrigo Cabrera: Hopefully up. Yeah.

31:37 Christian Sobkowski: And how? Okay. Who.

31:44 Rodrigo Cabrera: and not just that looking at this because like, for example, the This the 967 account. It's it's I think it's a account then of the day is always

31:58 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

31:58 Rodrigo Cabrera: zero. A. I don't know if it's, it's a good thing to to see it individually by account or if it will be better to see either the The cash that like the master account, the concentration account. It's harder to track a Each payment. Where is it coming from? Where is it going? Because then it's just one balance at the end or If it's good to see it.

32:31 Rodrigo Cabrera: Also as a group. So account group, we will have the payables account the receivables account, and they cash concentration. And I can't within one forecast, so we know where we stand on the cashconcentration and we will have forecast both ways. Or receivables, payables. And I think that gives us a better.

32:55 Rodrigo Cabrera: View of the business than looking individually at set via accounts that have just one payment. Year. And there. I don't know if that makes sense.

33:07 Christian Sobkowski: That makes sense. it does Emma any questions from you and that

33:14 Emma Sjöström: I'm sure I'm sure they're out, but what you're saying? If I'm understanding it correctly, it would be nice for you to sort of almost just define groups of accounts. And then view them together, somehow. Or look at like them holistically?

33:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Yeah.

33:34 Emma Sjöström: ish, so that you can

33:38 Rodrigo Cabrera: I don't know how. Complex, can you get a Right? That if it's football, I think that's that's a good way to view it. a will give us the full picture of the cash flow and on on a daily basis going

33:52 Emma Sjöström: And like what are the questions you would answer there? For example, just dumb it down for us. What would be like a question going in? Like what would be some sort of answer you're looking for if you had such a view?

34:15 Rodrigo Cabrera: forward instead of going account by account that it's telling us a picture but just not the full picture of the balance by By by currency by identity, for example. So we know that we have I don't know, 200 million on payments from one US, but probably their receivables account has 300 million in incoming payment.

34:41 Rodrigo Cabrera: They so

34:41 Emma Sjöström: So you can see even acting out sort of or like at an entity because of my second

34:44 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

34:47 Emma Sjöström: question is. Yes. Exactly like entity basis or because I assume like If now you have a lot of cash, but if it would take time to move funds, there could be a different need but for you. So it's enough to see at our entity or defined group bases. Like Cash makes sense as a whole here because it's a note that move the cash around

35:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Yeah.

35:12 Emma Sjöström: if you would need to or stuff like that. Yeah.

35:16 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yes. Because I can see here, okay, I get worried that I have a 50 million payment in

35:18 Emma Sjöström: Got.

35:24 Rodrigo Cabrera: two weeks. But if I have a 60 million, incoming payment in next week, then there's not much that I can do that. I should do.

35:34 Emma Sjöström: Now then grab a coffee and take a break.

35:35 Rodrigo Cabrera: A. Exactly.

35:40 Emma Sjöström: That's actually very interesting feedback I think as well. We are thinking just to be transparent a little bit better like how we could Moving forward, provide Visualizations that are more helpful to aching, the exactly those sort of things. But I still think it's quite interesting. Going back to the forecast.

36:01 Emma Sjöström: Sorry, Christian, the one where we were completely off, right? So let's say you have that holistic view if you were to drill down into it, something that it makes sense or it, you know, And then you find this. where the Orange Line let's say, you know it's so obviously off And your actuals are deviating quite a lot.

36:26 Emma Sjöström: Would you still feel confident like at that holistic level relying on that if you knew that it could look like this? In certain accounts.

36:37 Rodrigo Cabrera: But I think also the the next level it will also look off and of, I will have the option I guess to drill down to, to analyze it border. No, A

36:49 Emma Sjöström: Yeah. and then I assume you'd want to maybe make some action here, like Reach out to us. You know, what the hell guys or is it about like What action? Yeah.

37:04 Rodrigo Cabrera: Hey, welcome first. Yeah, I I will reach out the if there's like a huge difference of course that he didn't make sense a bottle. So if understand internally, right? If it was something randomly that we did super urgent then also, it's impossible for you

37:23 Emma Sjöström: Gotcha.

37:25 Rodrigo Cabrera: to to catch it. It will be good. Also internally to understand. Hey, why this happened, you know, how can we avoid from happening again? It's not only like, yeah, your forecast is wrong, but maybe we are also a missing things internally that we are not considering for or outflows or influence.

00:00 :

37:48 Emma Sjöström: Culture. And if you discover it's a new thing internally that you know they pay huge bonuses. All of the sudden, what would you like to do then? If you realize, oh, this is something recurring now. Would you expect the model to pick it up? Or would you like to Implement some or like how?

38:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: And let's have more for for a while, for If it's the first time I guess the model will not pick it up, right? We'll have to wait, I don't know if it's a yearly they you know, a yearly basically. Maybe you will not pick it up until the fourth year.

38:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: A. But if we see something that is required like that every couple of months, we can a Input it in the system in advance. Like, Hey, we're expecting I don't know, 10 million every three months to taxes or salaries or whatever so the the model can consider it for the future forecast.

38:52 Rodrigo Cabrera: Hey, of course, we can give an exact amount, right? We will not have the, A all the way to the, to the same, but then the tool will already know, the model will already know. Hey, more or less we're expecting 10 million out. I'll put 10 million this month if it's 10.2 the next month, they get adjusted.

39:16 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, it's okay. That will be the way. I'll see it. Yeah.

39:23 Emma Sjöström: Really cool. Thank you.

39:30 Christian Sobkowski: Good. I had one. I had one more question that we were discussing it and How often do these things change completely. So in this case, for example, would you Would you ever like start paying salaries in the US from a different account than this one? Or same with like payables.

39:51 Christian Sobkowski: Would you like switch your AP from one account to another?

39:56 Rodrigo Cabrera: A hopefully not we did that change already last year.

40:01 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

40:01 Rodrigo Cabrera: That we kind of did the split on payable receivables between 2020 24. We kind of had that the split A I don't think he should it will happen again or anytime soon.

40:16 Christian Sobkowski: What? What did you do that?

40:20 Rodrigo Cabrera: Hey, we implemented a account receivable software that it needed to.

40:27 Christian Sobkowski: Mm-hmm.

40:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: Their own account to, to process payments. So we couldn't have account like payables in the account receivables account, otherwise in high radius was not going to be able to process them. So we needed

40:44 Christian Sobkowski: Yep.

40:46 Rodrigo Cabrera: to do a split like kind of a cleanup. We still have every now and then an error or A payment where it shouldn't be. But I don't expect another high radius anytime soon. So, which with the accounts that we have already, we have clearly defined, which account it's for reserves, which account is portables.

41:11 Rodrigo Cabrera: And in most cases, we also have that Treachery account or the cash concentration account. We're, both of them are pulling on a daily basis. A. So I don't think we will have a Anything else on top of that? Yeah. Likely, I don't expect any change.

41:30 Christian Sobkowski: Got it. Okay. When this happened last year. The higher radius change.

41:40 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, started 23 A but they have 24 was most. Most of the cancer were moved.

41:45 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. Okay, interesting. Cool. And Okay, look any at the

42:08 Rodrigo Cabrera: So, this is not counting for intercom, right? Or it shouldn't

42:11 Christian Sobkowski: No. No, it's not. It's a, is there anything we should go? Any account you would like to see here?

42:26 Rodrigo Cabrera: A.

42:26 Christian Sobkowski: Any other time series? That would be interesting to look at.

42:32 Rodrigo Cabrera: How does the investment account looks or that's also outside of this?

42:39 Christian Sobkowski: How to see investment.

42:39 Rodrigo Cabrera: Can it forecast can can we for can it forecast? Yeah, like our Investment.

42:48 Christian Sobkowski: The Redemption.

42:50 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. like, if For the last. Three months, we have 50 million going out on the first of the month and on the 16th. Hey, Will he chose like? Hey this guys are increasing. It was, I don't know, just curiosity.

43:12 Christian Sobkowski: Emma, do you want to answer? Should I? So sorry. Okay. And no, it will not. And actually by we turned off forecast, for the investment, for the investment category because it's similar to. So, we're not forecasting into company, you are not forecasting FX, we're not cut forecasting investments, with the idea that yes, somebody on onsite managing those Actively.

43:49 Christian Sobkowski: They are all very, very big transactions. That if you tried forecasting, It would be wrong. Is that right?

43:59 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Yeah. No it was he was just curiously how he was going to look in the graph. But now that now that you mentioned effects,

44:05 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

44:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: a, if we have Because you have also the the starting balances here, right? Or the balances of March 31st, if we look at DKK, for example, Will lead. Tell us, when are we going to run out of that? Currency based on the Forecast.

44:35 Christian Sobkowski: It's actually the idea. I don't have it in this dashboard. How many DKK accounts do you have? You have multiple, right?

44:43 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, but only one, if you look at the one ending in 73, why?

44:50 Christian Sobkowski: Here, you know, you know, your account son.

44:55 Rodrigo Cabrera: Too much looking at them.

44:56 Christian Sobkowski: So let me show you something. So this is 73 y, right? It's actually forecasting increase which is not what you would expect.

45:15 Rodrigo Cabrera: A. I i it depends. Yeah maybe

45:23 Christian Sobkowski: So maybe actually what what's the activity you're having on this account? usually, Like this is a collections account.

45:34 Rodrigo Cabrera: A yeah, collections for in Denmark and some payments outgoing payments.

45:39 Christian Sobkowski: Actually. there's like, Almost nothing in terms of outgoing payments. it's like 3,600 crowns, like

45:48 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, it's like once a month, maybe.

45:52 Christian Sobkowski: it's like, Right.

45:57 Rodrigo Cabrera: I was expect more.

46:00 Christian Sobkowski: So you have like, standing orders. And Zba.

46:06 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, this is the cash for Master. Yes, we have me.

46:07 Christian Sobkowski: yeah, this

46:15 Rodrigo Cabrera: outgoing payments today, or Cash sweeps to the pain, tables accountant, the receivables.

46:19 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Yeah. So there's no. So yeah in short, there's no payables on this account, almost no payables.

46:31 Rodrigo Cabrera: They are mostly said, yes.

46:33 Christian Sobkowski: So it's yeah. So it's just sales coming in and that's why the balance is increasing. Am I right? And saying that? Really what you would want to see, then is All your DKK accounts together. How this line behaves?

46:52 Rodrigo Cabrera: A. yeah, I think that's what that we were talking before, like, grouping by by

47:01 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

47:01 Rodrigo Cabrera: Like this by currency, right? A But yeah, my question was like in the forecast will I like you can't say they the opening balance or the balance has 30% of March. And if we had any We will have. Expected pay expected cushions. But if sorently we had a Trend on on a cash out.

47:27 Rodrigo Cabrera: it will show the counters negative and can it trigger like an alert like, Hey, You will run out of DKK. In two weeks. or that something not an earlier, but if that's something that we can easily look at,

47:50 Christian Sobkowski: Yes, it can.

47:51 Rodrigo Cabrera: He will be part of that, right?

47:54 Christian Sobkowski: One. Hang on. Can I? Do you have, hmm? This one is. Yeah. So

48:12 Rodrigo Cabrera: Maybe we are doing super good in Denmark, and I picked the wrong account here.

48:13 Christian Sobkowski: Have you? Yeah I know. It's it's fine man and have you so yeah I think ultimately actually with this account you can be certain this one is not going to go to zero unless the Zba is like weird, right?

48:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

48:30 Christian Sobkowski: but this account itself is just collecting And have you seen the Cash Positions page that we have?

48:41 Rodrigo Cabrera: A yes.

48:42 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

48:43 Rodrigo Cabrera: Where all the companies are?

48:45 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, so that's what typically you would see the alerts. so, all the accounts are stable, but if the DKK account was going below zero in the next two weeks, It would show up here. Right at the top.

49:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: And this is considered inside the ace, then.

49:15 Christian Sobkowski: This is considering Emma, sorry, I'll let you talk.

49:20 Emma Sjöström: Now I guess we're gonna say this exact same thing. It's considering the master or parent Like the header accounts balance. But the assumption right now is for all the participants or children since the balance always zeros out. We've excluded them from this view. Since it's sweat to the parent.

00:00 :

49:44 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, but the parent a Here, will it consider? Set base as the forecast like how much? It expects to go out and how much this takes to go in based on set base. Or cash pulls. Yeah.

50:02 Christian Sobkowski: Not.

50:03 Emma Sjöström: that's, Yeah, that's an excellent. Yeah, not right now. It's it's Where we're?

50:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: Because if not from the parent account in theory, we're not doing any. Any payments, right? Or a, Or we are not receiving directly any customer payments there, everything that it's funded or paying. It's to the participants.

50:27 Christian Sobkowski: Yep.

50:30 Emma Sjöström: Just sorry out of curiosity there. Now I'm nitty greeting. Bear with me. So for each participant, we would still, let's say forecast the activity, right? And then that would last in the net cash flows for that account. for a week or a day, or So would you like to somehow be able to link that activity and see them how it would affect the balance up the master like account.

51:02 Emma Sjöström: Is that what

51:04 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, yes.

51:05 Emma Sjöström: What? Yeah. Just as crystal clear to me. Yes, and

51:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: okay, I think that that would be nice and I think other A. Other companies will want to look at it the same way.

51:21 Emma Sjöström: 100% Where yes we're we're working on it. It's will come later. in terms of the positioning,

51:36 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

51:40 Christian Sobkowski: Awesome. Okay um Art Emma as any other questions from you.

51:52 Emma Sjöström: Let me see. Yeah. Just I just wanted to double check something against those crystal clear from you mentioned something earlier about, like, so you have not necessarily the actual salaries in files and spreadsheets, but you had like social things and I'll just stop.

52:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: A.

52:11 Emma Sjöström: Misunderstand.

52:13 Rodrigo Cabrera: Behind that. We have that, that talent. HR payment tracker a that they don't they don't have the how much they are expecting the world on on salaries. But there are other talent related payments that go out that they have in that account, that it can be social security payments or benefits like healthcare and stuff like that.

52:39 Rodrigo Cabrera: They track it there as some As unexpected payment. it will not be in the open AP but it, they track it in that file, the same as we have a tracker for tax A Yeah.

52:55 Emma Sjöström: I you would like to use that in your forecast.

53:00 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yes.

53:01 Emma Sjöström: Yes. So that would be I don't know if we have time in this session that we're closing in a little bit on this to me, please correct me if I'm wrong Rodrigo. But to me that sounds a little bit like a payroll or salad like payroll. Let's call it payroll.

53:23 Emma Sjöström: It's like potentially you want both some? Confirmed actuals. And some machine learning. Or.

53:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yes.

53:31 Emma Sjöström: Or confirmed actuals and like a recurring amount that you add or like some mix of in terms.

53:36 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, with that. We yeah, we did with the forecast that we have a school board, the machine learning

53:39 Emma Sjöström: Yeah.

53:45 Rodrigo Cabrera: to Be better.

53:49 Christian Sobkowski: Is, is that thing?

53:50 Emma Sjöström: Or that. Yes. Yeah.

53:54 Christian Sobkowski: That. Is that meaningful amounts? In that. HR Tracker. like isn't isn't salary like

54:04 Rodrigo Cabrera: A.

54:06 Christian Sobkowski: Much bigger than those amounts.

54:06 Rodrigo Cabrera: No, no, no, not on a weekly basis, but the everything, like maybe four or five times a month. A.

54:17 Christian Sobkowski: What are the?

54:17 Rodrigo Cabrera: There's a big payment, outgoing payment.

54:21 Christian Sobkowski: ah, What are the big payments here? Like what?

54:22 Rodrigo Cabrera: A same same for for tax. A. If somebody leaves a

54:30 Christian Sobkowski: Ah, okay.

54:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: I have been here 10 years. We have to pay the

54:33 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, okay, okay. Okay.

54:36 Rodrigo Cabrera: Like like share plan. It gets right there. Yeah.

54:38 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Okay. Got it understood. Yeah. Okay those those are massive. Okay understood cool. And those are very much a one-off payments, right?

54:49 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

54:49 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Okay. Okay.

54:52 Emma Sjöström: What? Yeah, would they have like their own categories? Sorry, very nitty-gritty.

54:59 Rodrigo Cabrera: I think we can kill them in. One of the payroll categories.

55:06 Emma Sjöström: Cool.

55:08 Christian Sobkowski: Great example.

55:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: I have a question.

55:10 Christian Sobkowski: Yep.

55:11 Rodrigo Cabrera: We have new accounts coming in Australia. None of Australia. They will not have, of course, the history. Can they use the? History from the other account.

55:34 Christian Sobkowski: Ah, so you're moving. Are you saying you're moving moving payments from one

55:36 Rodrigo Cabrera: I do. Continue the Yeah, we're moving.

55:40 Christian Sobkowski: account to another

55:42 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, we're opening new banks. Yeah, we're switching bank.

55:46 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Okay.

55:47 Rodrigo Cabrera: I agreement payments from when I come to other. Yeah, forget about, but yeah.

55:47 Emma Sjöström: Right.

55:55 Rodrigo Cabrera: So we don't start from scratch, right? It's not significant because of the entity, but Just asking.

56:09 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, I

56:09 Art Koci: I mean, by default, we don't do it, but if it's necessary, we can shadow the account. But probably Emma is like technically, it's possible. But it's a very specific use case so I'm not sure. Probably Emma has to decide on this one.

56:32 Rodrigo Cabrera: No anything. It was in the main entity in the volumes were huge. I would say yes, but Because it's Australia. Maybe. It's okay. Well, there you go.

56:50 Christian Sobkowski: Is I'm assuming this case, like all the volume is shifting from one account to another right? And there's like a one-to-one mapping. Not quite okay little little bit more complex. Okay.

57:00 Rodrigo Cabrera: India more or less? Yeah, but yeah.

57:03 Emma Sjöström: Maybe we could take a look.

57:05 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah.

57:06 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, we can take a look once it's live.

57:13 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

57:14 Emma Sjöström: Okay.

57:18 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah. Hey Rodrigo, thank you so much for taking the time. I'm taking a lot away. I think amount art to Would you agree that actually, it would be helpful if we had a similar session with Amanda for sort of the longer term looking stuff on forecasts.

57:37 Rodrigo Cabrera: Probably.

57:38 Christian Sobkowski: Probably. Okay. Good all set that up. And cool. Any anything we didn't cover today that you would have loved us to cover.

57:50 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. No I think we are all good.

57:53 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. Let me the one thing I am taking away that I want to fill up with you on is the hex data because that did not look like I think you were expecting. Well, let me let us follow up with with more novels. He's here. Get you take there.

00:00 :

58:09 Rodrigo Cabrera: Now, it's not. If it's the All they know accounts I can I can update a manually. I can input the account manually and then I can share it. Share the file again with you.

58:27 Christian Sobkowski: This like thousands of nal accounts.

58:30 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah, but this female like half of them are from one single account and most of them are from, I don't know, 10 different accounts so it should be pretty easy

58:40 Christian Sobkowski: Okay.

58:41 Rodrigo Cabrera: to identify based on the flow code and currency.

58:42 Christian Sobkowski: Okay. I'll be quite interesting, actually. I would love to run that.

58:51 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah. Yeah. I just need to find a file that I shared and then I'll update it.

58:58 Christian Sobkowski: Yeah, let us know. We have two files from you. Maybe we're looking at the wrong file as well. But yeah, okay, let's let's jump in slack and we'll figure that one out. Amazing.

59:10 Rodrigo Cabrera: Perfect. Yeah.

59:11 Christian Sobkowski: Hey, enjoy your well deserved evening?

59:13 Rodrigo Cabrera: Thank you all for the time. Yeah, you too.

59:15 Emma Sjöström: Thank you.

59:16 Rodrigo Cabrera: Yeah.

59:17 Christian Sobkowski: Right.

59:17 Emma Sjöström: Kia. I,