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ON Feedback - 2026-02-18

TL;DR

Strong validation of scenario prototype direction. Amanda/Rodrigo rated it 8-9/10 — scenario and stress testing is part of ON's 2026 goals. Key new asks: working capital scenarios (AR/AP/inventory), IC categories in scope, fixed scenario tracking vs rolling actuals, and handling new entities with no historical data.

Overall Sentiment
Direction validated Yes
Stage shown Skateboard (percentage-based what-if prototype)
Ready for next stage Yes — team wants deeper session with Lucía + Julia
Blocker for them? No — but scenarios are a 2026 goal

Source

  • Transcript: 2026-02-18 standup
  • Date: 2026-02-18
  • Participants: Amanda Mitt, Rodrigo Cabrera (ON); Emma Sjöström, Jennifer (Palm)
  • Context: Weekly standup — Emma demoed the scenario what-if prototype for initial feedback

This Iteration: Validation

What they validated about the current design:

  • Percentage-based adjustments on categories — Amanda/Rodrigo: "Very intuitive and, I think, very fitting for Treasury. Like scenario planning." Direct comparison to tools used in previous roles.
  • Quick what-if mental model — the concept of lightweight, fast assumptions resonated over complex scenario trees.
  • Lego-piece composition — idea of combining small assumptions into larger scenario "events" (e.g., Swedish store opening) was well received.
  • Excitement level: 8-9/10 — Amanda/Rodrigo: "Super cool, actually. It's part of our goals, actually, for this year to do more scenario and stress testing."

Important Nuances

  • ON hasn't done scenario/stress testing on their forecast before — "it will be new" — so they're learning what they need as they go
  • The "Me"/"Them" transcript format means some attribution is approximate, but key quotes are clearly Amanda/Rodrigo's based on context
  • ON is rapidly expanding (new stores, new countries) which creates unique scenario needs around entities with zero historical data

Future Iterations: Suggestions

High Value

  • Fixed scenario tracking — Jennifer raised: once a scenario is set (best/worst/baseline), the rolling forecast re-baselines to actuals, wiping out the comparison. Need ability to "fix" a scenario point-in-time and overlay actuals on top. Amanda/Rodrigo agreed this would be valuable.
  • Intercompany & non-business categories — Amanda/Rodrigo asked if non-business categories (e.g., IC) could be included in scenario scope. Emma confirmed it should be possible but was out of prototype scope.

Medium Value

  • Working capital scenarios — Amanda/Rodrigo immediately saw use for AR, AP, inventory adjustments: "Like more this kind of networking capital. Like account receivable, accounts payables, inventory."
  • FX currency impact scenarios — discussed applying assumptions to see balance impact by currency (e.g., increased Mexican peso inflows from sales growth).
  • Confidence bands — Emma mentioned exposing ML confidence intervals (e.g., "80% certainty your balance lands between X and Y"). Amanda/Rodrigo was interested.

Longer Term

  • New entity/market scenarios with no historical data — Amanda/Rodrigo: "For us, a lot of things are new, right? So we are growing and expanding a lot, so everything is new. So it's hard to actually forecast for something that you have never experienced." Potentially needs manual input for made-up/estimated data.
  • Acquisition modelling — Amanda/Rodrigo: "An acquisition, we have never done it or even thinking about it, so we don't know. But once the time comes, if it comes, it will be interesting."
  • Anaplan budget data integration — feeding capex budgets from Anaplan into Palm for more complete scenario coverage.

Questions Asked

  • "Would it also be possible to include non-business categories?" (IC in scenarios) → Yes, planned but out of prototype scope
  • "Are these scenarios based on actuals or forecasts?" → Forecasts for now
  • "What about negative percentages?" → Yes, just add negative percentage
  • How to handle scenarios for entities with zero history (new Swedish store)? → Open question — possibly manual input

Raw Feedback Quotes

"Eight, nine. Super cool, actually. It's part of our goals, actually, for this year to do more scenario and stress testing." — Amanda/Rodrigo

"I think I can see us using it for different reasons. Like, for example, for inventory. Like more this kind of networking capital. Like account receivable, accounts payables, inventory." — Amanda/Rodrigo

"If we open a new store in Sweden, we will be expecting many more cash outs in Swedish Krona than expected. So it will be interesting to see these assumptions." — Amanda/Rodrigo

"For us, a lot of things are new, right? So we haven't done anything. Or we are growing and expanding a lot, so everything is new. So it's hard to actually forecast for something that you have never experienced." — Amanda/Rodrigo

"Once you see your scenario, it would be nice to see what you said was your best case, your baseline, and your worst case, and then with the actuals laid on top of that so it doesn't wipe out the history." — Jennifer (raising a customer-relevant design consideration)

Action Items

  • [ ] Schedule 30-min deep-dive scenario session with Lucía, Julia, and Amanda
  • [ ] Consider fixed-scenario-vs-rolling-actuals comparison in next iteration design
  • [ ] Explore intercompany categories in scenario scope