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ON Feedback - 2026-03-04

TL;DR

Direction validated but current skateboard (percentage-based only) is too limited for their highest-value use cases. Standout idea: a dynamic minimum cash buffer line derived from forecasted outflows (not hardcoded), overlaid on forecasts — used to advise CFO on M&A capacity and negotiate entity cash buffers with regions. Also need timing shifts and entity-level bottom-up modeling. Strategically critical for upcoming CFO conversations.

Overall Sentiment
Direction validated Partially
Stage shown Skateboard
Ready for next stage Needs changes
Blocker for them? No — they'll use it more once BigQuery/ERP data is connected

Source

  • Transcript: 2026-03-04-scenario-planning
  • Date: 2026-03-04
  • Participants: Lucia Galan Caceres (Treasury), Amanda Mitt (Treasury), Yulia Ershova (Treasury - IC & Investments), Rodrigo Cabrera (Treasury)
  • Context: Dedicated scenarios deep-dive session — ON team had requested this focus. Prototype shown live with inventory +40% assumption on ON GJ entity.

This Iteration: Validation

What they validated about the current design:

  • Entity + category scoping works — tested with ON GJ entity and inventory category
  • LEGO-style composable assumptions concept resonated — "I think it creates trust as well, because when you change one brick of the Lego... it's easier for us to judge if the change makes sense"
  • Time-bounded assumptions (adjustable 13-week window) — "you can play with the 13 weeks, shorten it to two, three weeks"
  • Bottom-up (entity-level) approach preferred over group — "I also prefer bottom up approach because it is easier to see or can validate if it is working or not working"

Important Nuances

  • The percentage adjustment alone felt too basic for their real use cases — they need timing shifts and absolute adjustments alongside percentages
  • Impact visualization was hard to read — small numbers on the group balance chart. They want category-level before/after breakdowns
  • They acknowledge current value is limited without BigQuery/ERP data for long-term planning — "I think we're going to use it even more in six months from now when we have all of that data"
  • They don't want to be "too demanding" on V1 but their actual workflows require more than percentages

Future Iterations: Suggestions

Ideas raised for future development (not blockers for current iteration):

High Value

  • Timing shifts — Delay/accelerate inflows or outflows by N days. Critical for modeling IC payment delays, AR collection slowdowns, and store opening delays. "I think timing shift is actually quite, quite good and quite useful in lots of different cases."
  • Dynamic minimum cash buffer line — A forecast-derived line overlaid on the cash position chart, automatically calculated from the entity's own forecasted outflows (e.g., "2 weeks worth of upcoming payables"). Crucially, this must be calculated from the forecast, not hardcoded — the line moves as the forecast changes, and it updates when scenarios/assumptions are applied. This makes it a living safety threshold rather than a static number. Use cases: (1) Advise CFO on safe cash levels for M&A — "anything above this line is available." (2) Negotiate entity-level cash buffers with regional teams — regions claim they need 200M but the calculated buffer shows 50M is sufficient, shifting the conversation to data. (3) Stress test under scenarios — apply a +40% inventory assumption and see if the entity still stays above its buffer line. (4) Intercompany steering — show regions the impact of late payments on their buffer. Lucia: "especially when it's not hard coded, but rather calculated, it really helps in the conversations with the region to say, hey, you keep telling me that you need two hundred, but what we see is that you would be okay with 50."
  • Category-level impact breakdown — Show before/after for the specific category being modeled, not just the aggregate balance. "Seeing a breakdown by category... for that category that you modeled."

Medium Value

  • Goal-seeking / reverse scenarios — "What needs to happen for me to reach this target in cash?" Used for entity-level negotiations with regions. "Hey, I want this entity to have this amount of cash by the end of the year. What needs to happen?"
  • Slope/pattern adjustments — Not just flat percentage shifts, but changing the trajectory shape. "Maybe you want to say it's going to be sold. Like using the stuff to change."
  • New entity modeling — Scenario for entities with zero historical data (new store openings). Sweden store opening in April was cited as immediate use case.

Longer Term

  • Natural language / prompt-based interface — "I'm just thinking... for the store, what happens very often is the store opening is delayed... it's easier to prompt it."
  • FP&A data bridge — Ingest controlling's indirect P&L plan and use scenario tool to stress test against direct cash forecast. "If we want to start looking long term, we would also have to use the FP&A data."
  • Regional access — Open scenario tool to regional treasury teams for live budget negotiation meetings. "Even within the meeting, we just run through assumptions together. Boom."

Questions Asked

  • "What's your end game — predefined LEGO bricks or prompt-style?" → Both, starting with structured UI to build trust and support backend capabilities
  • "Will correlations between categories be modeled?" → Work in progress (forecast V3), acknowledged as important but tricky

Raw Feedback Quotes

"I think it creates trust as well, because when you change one brick of the Lego, as I said, I think it's easier for us to judge if the change that we see makes sense or not." - Lucia

"I think timing shift is actually quite, quite good and quite useful in lots of different cases." - Amanda

"I also prefer bottom up approach because it is easier to see or can validate if it is working or not working." - Yulia

"I can see that we're going to need to provide anchors to the management on figures. And I want to feel safe that we've stress tested this enough to really feel this is a secure spot." - Lucia

"Even in the worst case scenario of plus 40% cash outs, you're still fine. With this, you know. So that's a nice use case." - Lucia

"Hey, I want this entity to have this amount of cash by the end of the year. What needs to happen so that we reach — it's not super out of what we are asked to check sometimes." - Lucia

"This idea of minimum cash, which we define as a company. So we say, hey, we never want to have less than two weeks worth of payables... especially when it's not hard coded, but rather calculated, it really helps in the conversations with the region to say, hey, you keep telling me that you need two hundred, but what we see is that you would be okay with 50." - Lucia

"If we say it's 50 for your entity and they think it's 200, they're going to throw all sorts of arguments at us. And it's just nice to be able to have a tool to say, okay, let's model them in. And then — so that's a nice use case." - Lucia

"I think we're going to use it even more in six months from now when we have all of that data." - Lucia

Action Items

  • [ ] ON team to identify 1-2 most valuable entity-level scenario use cases (e.g., Swedish store opening)
  • [ ] Schedule deep-dive interview on timing shift workflows
  • [ ] Explore minimum cash threshold overlay on forecasts
  • [ ] Improve scenario preview UI — add category-level before/after breakdown